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  • Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)

     Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria; Barrera-Escoda, Antoni; Guerreiro, Dolores; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Cunillera, Jordi
    Climatic change
    Date of publication: 2014
    Journal article

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    The complex topography and high climatic variability of the North Western Mediterranean Basin (NWMB) require a detailed assessment of climate change projections at high resolution. ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate projections for mid-21st century and three different emission scenarios are downscaled at 10 km resolution over the NWMB, using the WRF-ARW regional model. High resolution improves the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation climatologies, with Pearson's correlation against observation being higher for WRF-ARW (0.98 for temperature and 0.81 for precipitation) when compared to the ERA40 reanalysis (0.69 and 0.53, respectively). However, downscaled results slightly underestimate mean temperature (≈1.3 K) and overestimate the precipitation field (≈400 mm/year). Temperature is expected to raise in the NWMB in all considered scenarios (up to 1.4 K for the annualmean), and particularly during summertime and at high altitude areas. Annual mean precipitation is likely to decrease (around −5 % to −13 % for the most extreme scenarios). The climate signal for seasonal precipitation is not so clear, as it is highly influenced by the driving GCM simulation. All scenarios suggest statistically significant decreases of precipitation for mountain ranges in winter and autumn. High resolution simulations of regional climate are potentially useful to decision makers. Nevertheless, uncertainties related to seasonal precipitation projections still persist and have to be addressed.

  • Integrated assessment of air pollution using observations and modelling in Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Canary Islands)

     Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Soret Miravet, Albert; Guevara Vilardell, Marc; Martínez Palau, Francesc; Gassó Domingo, Santiago
    Science of the total environment
    Date of publication: 2014-03-01
    Journal article

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    The present study aims to analyse the atmospheric dynamics of the Santa Cruz de Tenerife region (Tenerife, Canary Islands). This area is defined by the presence of anthropogenic emissions (from a refinery, a port and road traffic) and by very specific meteorological and orographic conditions-it is a coastal area with a complex topography in which there is an interaction of regional atmospheric dynamics and a low thermal inversion layer. These factors lead to specific atmospheric pollution episodes, particularly in relation to SO2 and PM10. We applied a methodology to study these dynamics based on two complementary approaches: 1) the analysis of the observations from the air quality network stations and 2) simulation of atmospheric dynamics using the WRF-ARW/HERMESv2/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b and WRF-ARW/HYSPLIT modelling systems with a high spatial resolution (1×1km2). The results of our study show that the refinery plume plays an important role in the maximum SO2 observed levels. The area of maximum impact of the refinery is confined to a radius of 3km around this installation. A cluster analysis performed for the period: 1998-2011 identified six synoptic situations as predominant in the area. The episodes of air pollution by SO2 occur mainly in those with more limited dispersive conditions, such as the northeastern recirculation, the northwestern recirculation and the western advection, which represent 33.70%, 11.23% and 18.63% of the meteorological situations affecting the study area in the year 2011, respectively. In the case of particulate matter, Saharan dust intrusions result in episodes with high levels of PM10 that may exceed the daily limit value in all measurement station; these episodes occur when the synoptic situation is from the east (3.29% of the situations during the year 2011). © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

    The present study aims to analyse the atmospheric dynamics of the Santa Cruz de Tenerife region (Tenerife, Canary Islands). This area is defined by the presence of anthropogenic emissions (from a refinery, a port and road traffic) and by very specific meteorological and orographic conditions-it is a coastal area with a complex topography in which there is an interaction of regional atmospheric dynamics and a low thermal inversion layer. These factors lead to specific atmospheric pollution episodes, particularly in relation to SO2 and PM10. We applied a methodology to study these dynamics based on two complementary approaches: 1) the analysis of the observations from the air quality network stations and 2) simulation of atmospheric dynamics using the WRF-ARW/HERMESv2/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b and WRF-ARW/HYSPLIT modelling systems with a high spatial resolution (1×1km2). The results of our study show that the refinery plume plays an important role in the maximum SO2 observed levels. The area of maximum impact of the refinery is confined to a radius of 3km around this installation. A cluster analysis performed for the period: 1998-2011 identified six synoptic situations as predominant in the area. The episodes of air pollution by SO2 occur mainly in those with more limited dispersive conditions, such as the northeastern recirculation, the northwestern recirculation and the western advection, which represent 33.70%, 11.23% and 18.63% of the meteorological situations affecting the study area in the year 2011, respectively. In the case of particulate matter, Saharan dust intrusions result in episodes with high levels of PM10 that may exceed the daily limit value in all measurement station; these episodes occur when the synoptic situation is from the east (3.29% of the situations during the year 2011). © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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    Large scale air pollution estimation method combining land use regression and chemical transport modeling in a geostatistical framework  Open access

     Akita, Yasuyuki; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Beelen, Rob M. J.; Cirach, Marta; De Hoogh, Kees; Hoek, Gerard; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J.; Serre, Marc L.; De Nazelle, Audrey
    Environmental science and technology
    Date of publication: 2014-04-15
    Journal article

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    In recognition that intraurban exposure gradients may be as large as between-city variations, recent air pollution epidemiologic studies have become increasingly interested in capturing within-city exposure gradients. In addition, because of the rapidly accumulating health data, recent studies also need to handle large study populations distributed over large geographic domains. Even though several modeling approaches have been introduced, a consistent modeling framework capturing within-city exposure variability and applicable to large geographic domains is still missing. To address these needs, we proposed a modeling framework based on the Bayesian Maximum Entropy method that integrates monitoring data and outputs from existing air quality models based on Land Use Regression (LUR) and Chemical Transport Models (CTM). The framework was applied to estimate the yearly average NO2 concentrations over the region of Catalunya in Spain. By jointly accounting for the global scale variability in the concentration from the output of CTM and the intraurban scale variability through LUR model output, the proposed framework outperformed more conventional approaches.

    In recognition that intraurban exposure gradients may be as large as between-city variations, recent air pollution epidemiologic studies have become increasingly interested in capturing within-city exposure gradients. In addition, because of the rapidly accumulating health data, recent studies also need to handle large study populations distributed over large geographic domains. Even though several modeling approaches have been introduced, a consistent modeling framework capturing within-city exposure variability and applicable to large geographic domains is still missing. To address these needs, we proposed a modeling framework based on the Bayesian Maximum Entropy method that integrates monitoring data and outputs from existing air quality models based on Land Use Regression (LUR) and Chemical Transport Models (CTM). The framework was applied to estimate the yearly average NO2 concentrations over the region of Catalunya in Spain. By jointly accounting for the global scale variability in the concentration from the output of CTM and the intraurban scale variability through LUR model output, the proposed framework outperformed more conventional approaches.

  • Effects of sources and meteorology on particulate matter in the Western Mediterranean Basin: An overview of the DAURE campaign

     Pandolfi, Marco; Querol, Xavier; Alastuey, Andres; Jiménez, José-Luis; Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Day, D.; Ortega, A.; Cubison, M.J.; Comeron Tejero, Adolfo; Sicard, Michaël; Mohr, C.; Prévôt, A.S.H.; Minguillón, M.C.; Pey, Jorge; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Burkhart, J.F.; Seco, R.; Peñuelas, J.; van Drooge, B.L.; Artiñano, Begoña; Di Marco, C.; Nemitz, E.; Schallhart, S.; Metzger, A.; Hansel, A.; Lorente, J.; Ng, S.; Jayne, J.; Szidat, S.
    Journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
    Date of publication: 2014-04-27
    Journal article

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    DAURE (Determination of the Sources of Atmospheric Aerosols in Urban and Rural Environments in the Western Mediterranean) was a multidisciplinary international field campaign aimed at investigating the sources and meteorological controls of particulate matter in the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB). Measurements were simultaneously performed at an urban-coastal (Barcelona, BCN) and a rural-elevated (Montseny, MSY) site pair in NE Spain during winter and summer. State-of-the-art methods such as 14C analysis, proton-transfer reaction mass spectrometry, and high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometry were applied for the first time in the WMB as part of DAURE. WMB regional pollution episodes were associated with high concentrations of inorganic and organic species formed during the transport to inland areas and built up at regional scales. Winter pollutants accumulation depended on the degree of regional stagnation of an air mass under anticyclonic conditions and the planetary boundary layer height. In summer, regional recirculation and biogenic secondary organic aerosols (SOA) formation mainly determined the regional pollutant concentrations. The contribution from fossil sources to organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) and hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol concentrations were higher at BCN compared with MSY due to traffic emissions. The relative contribution of nonfossil OC was higher at MSY especially in summer due to biogenic emissions. The fossil OC/EC ratio at MSY was twice the corresponding ratio at BCN indicating that a substantial fraction of fossil OC was due to fossil SOA. In winter, BCN cooking emissions were identified as an important source of modern carbon in primary organic aerosol. Key Points Analysis of the sources and meteorological controls of PM in the WMB

  • Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)

     Barrera Escoda, A.; Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria; Guerreiro, Dolores; Cunillera, Jordi; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Climatic change
    Date of publication: 2014-02-01
    Journal article

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    The North Western Mediterranean basin (NWMB) is characterised by a highly complex topography and an important variability of temperature and precipitation patterns. Downscaling techniques are required to capture these features, identify the most vulnerable areas to extreme changes and help decision makers to design strategies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. A Regional Climate Model, WRF-ARW, is used to downscale the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5/MPI-OM General Circulation Model results with high resolution (10 km), considering three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) for 2001-2050. Model skills to reproduce observed extremes are assessed for a control period, 1971-2000, using the ERA40 reanalysis to drive the WRF-ARW simulations. A representative set of indices for temperature and precipitation extremes is projected. The modelling system correctly reproduces amplitude and frequency of extremes and provides a high degree of detail on variability over neighbouring areas. However, it tends to overestimate the persistence of wet events and consequently slightly underestimate the length of dry periods. Drier and hotter conditions are generally projected for the NWMB, with significant increases in the duration of droughts and the occurrence of heavy precipitation events. The projected increase in the number of tropical nights and extreme temperatures could have a negative effect on human health and comfort conditions. Simulations allow defining specifically vulnerable areas, such as the Ebro Valley or the Pyrenees, and foreseeing impacts on socio-economic activities in the region

  • Modelització dels recursos eòlics sota escenaris de canvi climàtic a Catalunya

     Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria; Barrera-Escoda, Antoni; Cunillera, Jordi; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Jornada anual d'actualització de coneixements sobre el canvi climàtic a Catalunya
    Presentation's date: 2014-06-27
    Presentation of work at congresses

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    El model WRF s¿ha aplicat a alta resolució (10 km i 33 nivells verticals) a Catalunya, per a reproduir la velocitat i direcció mitjanes del vent per al període 1981-2050. El WRF és capaç d¿obtenir els patrons geogràfics del vent present en les observacions, tot i que amb una sobreestimació general de la seva velocitat en superfície. Els canvis projectats en la velocitat mitjana del vent en superfície (2031-2050 vs 1981-2000) apunten cap a una disminució i reduccions de fins al 20% en la densitat de l'energia eòlica a 60 m d¿altura (alçada típica de treball de les turbines dels parcs eòlics) per a zones específiques del territori. Les àrees preferencials per a les ubicacions de parcs eòlics definides en l'actualitat es veuran afectades. Per tant, per a noves ubicacions serà recomanable no tenir només en compte les climatologies actuals del vent, sinó també com aquestes poden canviar sota escenaris climàtics futurs.

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    Application of a synergetic lidar and sunphotometer algorithm for the characterization of a dust event over Athens, Greece  Open access

     Tsekeri, A.; Amiridis, Vassilis; Kokkalis, P; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Chaikovsky, Anatoli; Dubovik, O; Mamouri, R.E.; Papayannis, Alexander; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    British journal of environment and climate change
    Date of publication: 2013-11-18
    Journal article

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    We present first retrievals of the Lidar-Radiometer Inversion Code (LIRIC), applied on combined lidar and sunphotometer data during a Saharan dust episode over Athens, Greece, on July 20, 2011. A full lidar dataset in terms of backscatter signals at 355, 532 and 1064 nm, as well as depolarization at 532 nm was acquired from the European Aerosol Research Network (EARLINET) station of Athens and combined with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data, in order to retrieve the concentration and extinction coefficient profiles of dust. The lidar measurements showed a free tropospheric layer between 1-5 km above Athens, with low Ångström exponent of ~0.5 and high particle depolarization ratio, ~25-30%, both values characteristic of dust particles. The application of LIRIC revealed high concentration profiles of non-spherical coarse particles in the layer, in the range of 0.04-0.07 ppb and a smaller fine particle component with concentrations of ~0.01 ppb. The extinction coefficients at 532 nm ranged between 50 and 90 Mm-1 for coarse non-spherical particles and between 25 and 50Mm-1 for fine particles. The retrievals were compared with modeled dust concentration and extinction coefficient profiles from the Dust Regional Atmospheric Modeling (BSC-DREAM8b), showing good agreement, especially for the coarse mode

    We present first retrievals of the Lidar-Radiometer Inversion Code (LIRIC), applied on combined lidar and sunphotometer data during a Saharan dust episode over Athens, Greece, on July 20, 2011. A full lidar dataset in terms of backscatter signals at 355, 532 and 1064 nm, as well as depolarization at 532 nm was acquired from the European Aerosol Research Network (EARLINET) station of Athens and combined with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data, in order to retrieve the concentration and extinction coefficient profiles of dust. The lidar measurements showed a free tropospheric layer between 1-5 km above Athens, with low Ångström exponent of ~0.5 and high particle depolarization ratio, ~25-30%, both values characteristic of dust particles. The application of LIRIC revealed high concentration profiles of non-spherical coarse particles in the layer, in the range of 0.04-0.07 ppb and a smaller fine particle component with concentrations of ~0.01 ppb. The extinction coefficients at 532 nm ranged between 50 and 90 Mm-1 for coarse non-spherical particles and between 25 and 50Mm-1 for fine particles. The retrievals were compared with modeled dust concentration and extinction coefficient profiles from the Dust Regional Atmospheric Modeling (BSC-DREAM8b), showing good agreement, especially for the coarse mode

  • Effect of high-resolution meteorological forcing on nearshore wave and current model performance

     Bricheno, Lucy M; Soret Miravet, Albert; Wolf, Judith; Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Journal of atmospheric and oceanic technology
    Date of publication: 2013-06-01
    Journal article

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    Accurate representation of wind forcing and mean sea level pressure is important for modeling waves and surges. This is especially important for complex coastal zone areas. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been run at 12-, 4-, and 1.33-km resolution for a storm event over the Irish Sea. The outputs were used to force the coupled hydrodynamic and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modeling System (POLCOMS)¿Wave Model (WAM) and the effect on storm surge and waves has been assessed. An improvement was observed in the WRF model pressure and wind speed when moving from 12- to 4-km resolution with errors in wind speed decreasing more than 10% on average. When moving from 4 to 1.33km no further significant improvement was observed. The atmospheric model results at 12 and 4 km were then applied to the ocean model. Wave direction was seen to improve with increased ocean model resolution, and higher-resolution forcing was found to generally increase the wave height over the Irish Sea by up to 40cm in places. Improved clustering of wave direction was observed when 4-km meteorological forcing was used. Large differences were seen in the coastal zone because of the improved representation of the coastline and, in turn, the atmospheric boundary layer. The combination of high-resolution atmospheric forcing and a coupled wave¿surge model gave the best result.

  • An Improved system for modelling Spanish emissions: HERMESv2.0

     Guevara Vilardell, Marc; Martínez Palau, Francesc; Arevalo Roa, Gustavo; Gassó Domingo, Santiago; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Atmospheric environment
    Date of publication: 2013-12
    Journal article

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    Emission models play a key role in the development of high-resolution air quality modelling systems (AQMS). To minimise the uncertainty presented by these models, it is essential to match the high-resolution requirements of chemical transport models (CTMs) and to use up-to-date information and emission methodologies. During 2005 and 2006, the Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputación (BSC-CNS) developed the High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emissions System (HERMES04), which is a model that estimates anthropogenic and biogenic emissions for Spain with a temporal and spatial resolution of 1h and 1km2, taking 2004 as the reference period. Due to both the changes in Spanish emissions patterns and the age of the activity data and methodologies used, it has become necessary to update and improve the whole system. Hence, a new high-resolution emission model for Spain (HERMESv2.0) has been developed. This work introduces the improved emission estimation methodologies and data on which the model is based, as well as an analysis of the results obtained. The annual emissions estimated by HERMESv2.0 for Spain in 2009 are: NOx, 924kt; NMVOCs, 2331kt; SO2, 278kt; CO, 2178kt; NH3, 339kt; PM10, 139kt; and PM2.5, 105kt. Compared with HERMES04, major differences are found in NMVOCs (+1172kt) and SO2 (-870kt). Important changes inemission patterns are also observed in terms of spatial and temporal distributions. A numerical comparison of both models with the Spanish National Emission Inventory indicates that previous underestimations have been heavily reduced in HERMESv2.0, especially for NOx (from -669kt·year-1 to -176kt·year-1), CO (from -761kt·year-1 to 271kt·year-1) and NMVOCs (from -1217kt·year-1 to 135kt·year-1). The new model substitutes HERMES04 as the emission core of the operational air quality forecasting system for Spain CALIOPE.

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    Changes in particulate matter physical properties during Saharan advections over Rome (Italy): A four-year study, 2001-2004  Open access

     Gobbi, Gianpaolo; Angelini, Federico; Barnaba, Francesca; Costabile, Francesca; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Sozzi, Roberto; Bolignano, Andrea
    Atmospheric chemistry and physics
    Date of publication: 2013
    Journal article

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    Particulate matter mass concentrations measured in the city of Rome (Italy) in the period 2001¿2004 have been cross-analysed with concurrent Saharan dust advection events to infer the impact these natural episodes bear on the standard air quality parameter PM10 observed at two city stations and at one regional background station. Natural events such as Saharan dust advections are associated with a definite health risk. At the same time, the Directive 2008/50/EC allows subtraction of PM exceedances caused by natural contributions from statistics used to determine air quality of EU sites. In this respect, it is important to detect and characterise such advections by means of reliable, operational techniques. To assess the PM10 increase we used both the ¿regionalbackground method¿ suggested by EC Guidelines and a ¿local background¿ method, demonstrated to be most suited to this central Mediterranean region. In terms of exceedances, the two approaches provided results within 20% of each other at background sites, and at 50% of each other in traffic conditions.

    Particulate matter mass concentrations measured in the city of Rome (Italy) in the period 2001–2004 have been cross-analysed with concurrent Saharan dust advection events to infer the impact these natural episodes bear on the standard air quality parameter PM10 observed at two city stations and at one regional background station. Natural events such as Saharan dust advections are associated with a definite health risk. At the same time, the Directive 2008/50/EC allows subtraction of PM exceedances caused by natural contributions from statistics used to determine air quality of EU sites. In this respect, it is important to detect and characterise such advections by means of reliable, operational techniques. To assess the PM10 increase we used both the “regionalbackground method” suggested by EC Guidelines and a “local background” method, demonstrated to be most suited to this central Mediterranean region. In terms of exceedances, the two approaches provided results within 20% of each other at background sites, and at 50% of each other in traffic conditions.

  • A Comparative analysis of two highly spatially resolved european atmospheric emission inventories

     Ferreira, Joaquim; Guevara Vilardell, Marc; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Tchepel, Oxana; Schaap, M.; Miranda, A.I.; Borrego, Carlos
    Atmospheric environment
    Date of publication: 2013-08
    Journal article

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    A reliable emissions inventory is highly important for air quality modelling applications, especially at regional or local scales, which require high resolutions. Consequently, higher resolution emission inventories have been developed that are suitable for regional air quality modelling. This research performs an inter-comparative analysis of different spatial disaggregation methodologies of atmospheric emission inventories. This study is based on two different European emission inventories with different spatial resolutions: 1) the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) inventory and 2) an emission inventory developed by the TNO (Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research). These two emission inventories were converted into three distinct gridded emission datasets as follows: (i) the EMEP emission inventory was disaggregated by area (EMEParea) and (ii) following a more complex methodology (HERMES-DIS ¿ High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emissions System ¿ DISaggregation module) to understand and evaluate the influence of different disaggregation methods; and (iii) the TNO gridded emissions, which are based on different emission data sources and different disaggregation methods. A predefined common grid with a spatial resolution of 12 × 12 km2 was used to compare the three datasets spatially...

    A reliable emissions inventory is highly important for air quality modelling applications, especially at regional or local scales, which require high resolutions. Consequently, higher resolution emission inventories have been developed that are suitable for regional air quality modelling. This research performs an inter-comparative analysis of different spatial disaggregation methodologies of atmospheric emission inventories. This study is based on two different European emission inventories with different spatial resolutions: 1) the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) inventory and 2) an emission inventory developed by the TNO (Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research). These two emission inventories were converted into three distinct gridded emission datasets as follows: (i) the EMEP emission inventory was disaggregated by area (EMEParea) and (ii) following a more complex methodology (HERMES-DIS – High-Elective Resolution Modelling Emissions System – DISaggregation module) to understand and evaluate the influence of different disaggregation methods; and (iii) the TNO gridded emissions, which are based on different emission data sources and different disaggregation methods. A predefined common grid with a spatial resolution of 12 × 12 km2 was used to compare the three datasets spatially. The inter-comparative analysis was performed by source sector (SNAP – Selected Nomenclature for Air Pollution) with emission totals for selected pollutants. It included the computation of difference maps (to focus on the spatial variability of emission differences) and a linear regression analysis to calculate the coefficients of determination and to quantitatively measure differences. From the spatial analysis, greater differences were found for residential/commercial combustion (SNAP02), solvent use (SNAP06) and road transport (SNAP07). These findings were related to the different spatial disaggregation that was conducted by the TNO and HERMES-DIS for the first two sectors and to the distinct data sources that were used by the TNO and HERMES-DIS for road transport. Regarding the regression analysis, the greatest correlation occurred between the EMEParea and HERMES-DIS because the latter is derived from the first, which does not occur for the TNO emissions. The greatest correlations were encountered for agriculture NH3 emissions, due to the common use of the CORINE Land Cover database for disaggregation. The point source emissions (energy industries, industrial processes, industrial combustion and extraction/distribution of fossil fuels) resulted in the lowest coefficients of determination. The spatial variability of SOx differed among the emissions that were obtained from the different disaggregation methods. In conclusion, HERMES-DIS and TNO are two distinct emission inventories, both very well discretized and detailed, suitable for air quality modelling. However, the different databases and distinct disaggregation methodologies that were used certainly result in different spatial emission patterns. This fact should be considered when applying regional atmospheric chemical transport models. Future work will focus on the evaluation of air quality models performance and sensitivity to these spatial discrepancies in emission inventories. Air quality modelling will benefit from the availability of appropriate resolution, consistent and reliable emission inventories

  • Overview of the meteorology and transport patterns during the DAURE field campaign and their impact to PM observations

     Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Pandolfi, Marco; Spada, Michele; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Pey, Jorge; Alastuey, Andres; Arnold Arias, Delia; Sicard, Michaël; Artiñano, Begoña; Revuelta, M.A.; Querol, Xavier
    Atmospheric environment
    Date of publication: 2013-10
    Journal article

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    The experimental campaign "Determination of the sources of atmospheric Aerosols in Urban and Rural Environments in Spain" (DAURE) took place in a urban (Barcelona city) and a rural (the Montseny Natural Park) Spanish sites. Its main objective was to study the formation and transport processes of particulate matter in the region during winter and summer time. This paper presents a description of the meteorological conditions during the campaign by means of meteorological observations, high-resolution mesoscale meteorological modelling and backward Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations. Modelling results are in agreement with observations and provide a valuable tool for characterizing transport patterns in relation to episodes of air pollution. An objective classification of the synoptic conditions and a classification of the main local dispersion patterns is presented and discussed. Additionally, the measured PM1 and PM10 levels in both urban and rural sites are discussed and related to the meteorological conditions observed

    The experimental campaign “Determination of the sources of atmospheric Aerosols in Urban and RuralEnvironments in Spain “(DAURE) took place in a urban (Barcelona city) and a rural (the Montseny Natural Park) Spanish sites. Its main objective was to study the formation and transport processes of particulate matter in the region during winter and summer time. This paper presents a description of the meteorological conditions during the campaign by means of meteorological observations, high-resolution mesoscale meteorological modelling and backward Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations. Modelling results are in agreement with observations and provide a valuable tool for characterizing transport patterns in relation to episodes of air pollution. An objective classification of the synoptic conditions and a classification of the main local dispersion patterns is presented and discussed. Additionally, themeasured PM1 and PM10 levels in both urban and rural sites are discussed and related to the meteorological conditions observed.

  • Analysis of long-range transport of aerosols for Portugal using 3D Chemical Transport Model and satellite measurements

     Tchepel, Oxana; Ferreira, Joaquim; Fernandes, A.P.; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Borrego, Carlos
    Atmospheric environment
    Date of publication: 2013-01-01
    Journal article

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    The objective of this work is to assess the contribution of long-range transport of mineral dust from North Africa to the air pollution levels in Portugal based on a combination of a modelling approach and satellite observations. The Comprehensive Air Quality Model (CAMx) was applied together with the updated Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (BSC-DREAM8b) to characterise anthropogenic and natural sources of primary aerosols as well as secondary aerosols formation. The modelling results, after their validation and bias removing process, have been used in combination with aerosol measurements provided by Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), using OMAERUV Level-2 v003 product, aiming to better understand the advantages and shortcomings of both, satellite and modelling aerosol data. The data analysis is presented for Portugal for July 2006 focusing on aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500 nm and aerosol type. Based on the modelling results, the importance of the long-range transport of mineral dust was demonstrated for the simulation days, achieving a 60% contribution to AOD levels. The mineral dust is affecting atmospheric layers up to 6 km but peak concentrations are presented at layers below 2 km. The model predicts a complex mixture of different types of aerosol for the pixels classified by OMI as ¿mineral dust¿ and ¿sulphates¿. Although a good agreement between the model outputs and OMI observations has been found in terms of the spatial pattern and AOD correlation is about 0.48 for mineral dust, several problems were identified. The model is systematically underestimating the aerosol concentration at near ground level in comparison with the air quality monitoring stations, while OMI is in general overestimating AOD for the analysed period based on the comparison with AERONET data. Additionally, misclassification of mineral dust for some geographical locations and discontinuity in AOD values along the coastal line at water/land interface in the OMI data are discussed.

    The objective of this work is to assess the contribution of long-range transport of mineral dust from North Africa to the air pollution levels in Portugal based on a combination of a modelling approach and satellite observations. The Comprehensive Air Quality Model (CAMx) was applied together with the updated Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (BSC-DREAM8b) to characterise anthropogenic and natural sources of primary aerosols as well as secondary aerosols formation. The modelling results, after their validation and bias removing process, have been used in combination with aerosol measurements provided by Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), using OMAERUV Level-2 v003 product, aiming to better understand the advantages and shortcomings of both, satellite and modelling aerosol data. The data analysis is presented for Portugal for July 2006 focusing on aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 500 nm and aerosol type. Based on the modelling results, the importance of the long-range transport of mineral dust was demonstrated for the simulation days, achieving a 60% contribution to AOD levels. The mineral dust is affecting atmospheric layers up to 6 km but peak concentrations are presented at layers below 2 km. The model predicts a complex mixture of different types of aerosol for the pixels classified by OMI as “mineral dust” and “sulphates”. Although a good agreement between the model outputs and OMI observations has been found in terms of the spatial pattern and AOD correlation is about 0.48 for mineral dust, several problems were identified. The model is systematically underestimating the aerosol concentration at near ground level in comparison with the air quality monitoring stations, while OMI is in general overestimating AOD for the analysed period based on the comparison with AERONET data. Additionally, misclassification of mineral dust for some geographical locations and discontinuity in AOD values along the coastal line at water/land interface in the OMI data are discussed.

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    Optimizing CALIPSO saharan dust retrievals  Open access

     Amiridis, Vassilis; Wandinger, Ulla; Marinou, E.; Giannakaki, E.; Tsekeri, A.; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Kazadzis, Stylianos; Gkikas, A.; Taylor, M.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Ansmann, Albert
    Atmospheric chemistry and physics
    Date of publication: 2013-12-13
    Journal article

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    We demonstrate improvements in CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) dust extinction retrievals over northern Africa and Europe when corrections are applied regarding the Saharan dust lidar ratio assumption, the separation of the dust portion in detected dust mixtures, and the averaging scheme introduced in the Level 3 CALIPSO product. First, a universal, spatially constant lidar ratio of 58 sr instead of 40 sr is applied to individual Level 2 dust-related backscatter products. The resulting aerosol optical depths show an improvement compared with synchronous and collocated AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) measurements. An absolute bias of the order of -0.03 has been found, improving on the statistically significant biases of the order of -0.10 reported in the literature for the original CALIPSO product. When compared with the MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) product, the CALIPSO negative bias is even less for the lidar ratio of 58 sr. After introducing the new lidar ratio for the domain studied, we examine potential improvements to the climatological CALIPSO Level 3 extinction product: (1) by introducing a new methodology for the calculation of pure dust extinction from dust mixtures and (2) by applying an averaging scheme that includes zero extinction values for the nondust aerosol types detected. The scheme is applied at a horizontal spatial resolution of 1 × 1 for ease of comparison with the instantaneous and collocated dust extinction profiles simulated by the BSC-DREAM8b dust model. Comparisons show that the extinction profiles retrieved with the proposed methodology reproduce the well-known model biases per subregion examined. The very good agreement of the proposed CALIPSO extinction product with respect to AERONET, MODIS and the BSC-DREAM8b dust model makes this dataset an ideal candidate for the provision of an accurate and robust multiyear dust climatology over northern Africa and Europe

    We demonstrate improvements in CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) dust extinction retrievals over northern Africa and Europe when corrections are applied regarding the Saharan dust lidar ratio assumption, the separation of the dust portion in detected dust mixtures, and the averaging scheme introduced in the Level 3 CALIPSO product. First, a universal, spatially constant lidar ratio of 58 sr instead of 40 sr is applied to individual Level 2 dust-related backscatter products. The resulting aerosol optical depths show an improvement compared with synchronous and collocated AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) measurements. An absolute bias of the order of -0.03 has been found, improving on the statistically significant biases of the order of -0.10 reported in the literature for the original CALIPSO product. When compared with the MODIS (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) collocated aerosol optical depth (AOD) product, the CALIPSO negative bias is even less for the lidar ratio of 58 sr. After introducing the new lidar ratio for the domain studied, we examine potential improvements to the climatological CALIPSO Level 3 extinction product: (1) by introducing a new methodology for the calculation of pure dust extinction from dust mixtures and (2) by applying an averaging scheme that includes zero extinction values for the nondust aerosol types detected. The scheme is applied at a horizontal spatial resolution of 1 × 1 for ease of comparison with the instantaneous and collocated dust extinction profiles simulated by the BSC-DREAM8b dust model. Comparisons show that the extinction profiles retrieved with the proposed methodology reproduce the well-known model biases per subregion examined. The very good agreement of the proposed CALIPSO extinction product with respect to AERONET, MODIS and the BSC-DREAM8b dust model makes this dataset an ideal candidate for the provision of an accurate and robust multiyear dust climatology over northern Africa and Europe

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    Modeling and evaluation of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution: sensitivity to emission schemes and resolution effects at coastal/orographic sites  Open access

     Spada, Michele; Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Pérez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Janjic, Z; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Atmospheric chemistry and physics
    Date of publication: 2013
    Journal article

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    One of the major sources of uncertainty in model estimates of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution is the emission parameterization. We evaluate a new sea-salt aerosol life cycle module coupled to the online multiscale chemical transport model NMMB/BSC-CTM. We compare 5 yr global simulations using five state-of-the-art sea-salt open-ocean emission schemes with monthly averaged coarse aerosol optical depth (AOD) from selected AERONET sun photometers, surface concentration measurements from the University of Miami's Ocean Aerosol Network, and measurements from two NOAA/PMEL cruises (AEROINDOEX and ACE1). Model results are highly sensitive to the introduction of sea-surface-temperature (SST)-dependent emissions and to the accounting of spume particles production. Emission ranges from 3888 Tg yr(-1) to 8114 Tg yr(-1), lifetime varies between 7.3 h and 11.3 h, and the average column mass load is between 5.0 Tg and 7.2 Tg. Coarse AOD is reproduced with an overall correlation of around 0.5 and with normalized biases ranging from +8.8% to +38.8 %. Surface concentration is simulated with normalized biases ranging from -9.5% to +28% and the overall correlation is around 0.5. Our results indicate that SST-dependent emission schemes improve the overall model performance in reproducing surface concentrations. On the other hand, they lead to an overestimation of the coarse AOD at tropical latitudes, although it may be affected by uncertainties in the comparison due to the use of all-sky model AOD, the treatment of water uptake, deposition and optical properties in the model and/or an inaccurate size distribution at emission.

    One of the major sources of uncertainty in model estimates of the global sea-salt aerosol distribution is the emission parameterization. We evaluate a new sea-salt aerosol life cycle module coupled to the online multiscale chemical transport model NMMB/BSC-CTM. We compare 5 yr global simulations using five state-of-the-art sea-salt open-ocean emission schemes with monthly averaged coarse aerosol optical depth (AOD) from selected AERONET sun photometers, surface concentration measurements from the University of Miami's Ocean Aerosol Network, and measurements from two NOAA/PMEL cruises (AEROINDOEX and ACE1#. Model results are highly sensitive to the introduction of sea-surface-temperature #SST#-dependent emissions and to the accounting of spume particles production. Emission ranges from 3888 Tg yr#-1# to 8114 Tg yr#-1), lifetime varies between 7.3 h and 11.3 h, and the average column mass load is between 5.0 Tg and 7.2 Tg. Coarse AOD is reproduced with an overall correlation of around 0.5 and with normalized biases ranging from +8.8% to +38.8 %. Surface concentration is simulated with normalized biases ranging from -9.5% to +28% and the overall correlation is around 0.5. Our results indicate that SST-dependent emission schemes improve the overall model performance in reproducing surface concentrations. On the other hand, they lead to an overestimation of the coarse AOD at tropical latitudes, although it may be affected by uncertainties in the comparison due to the use of all-sky model AOD, the treatment of water uptake, deposition and optical properties in the model and/or an inaccurate size distribution at emission.

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    Estimation of future emission scenarios for analysing the impact of traffic mobility on a large Mediterranean conurbation in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area (Spain)  Open access

     Soret Miravet, Albert; Jiménez Guerrero, Pedro; Andrés, David; Cárdenas, Francisco; Rueda, Salvador; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Atmospheric Pollution Research
    Date of publication: 2013-01-01
    Journal article

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    Emission modelling permits us to quantitatively assess the effects of emission abatement strategies. In urban areas, such strategies are designed mainly to reduce the emissions from the on–road traffic sector. This work analyses the impact of several mobility strategies on urban emissions in the coastal city of Barcelona, Spain, when the High Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System (HERMES) is applied at a very high resolution (1 km × 1 km and 1 h). The analysis was conducted by projecting the emissions data obtained from a base case scenario in 2004 onto three future scenarios set in 2015, where each future scenario represented a set of traffic mobility management measures. Specific developments were considered per emission sector, including power generation, industrial activities, domestic– commercial, solvents, on–road traffic, biogenic emissions, ports and airports, to best compare the present base case scenario with the future mobility scenarios generated for 2015. These emission scenarios for 2015 take into account the population projections and the variations in port and airport activities among other factors, while the main focus is on the on–road traffic sector, the types of vehicles used, such as technologically improved buses and hybrid vehicles, as well as the types of fuels used, including natural gas and biofuels. The results of the emission model indicate that the mobility management strategies, the technological improvements and the use of alternative fuels reduce the emissions from on–road traffic by approximately 75% (in terms of nitrogen oxides emission reductions in the city centre of Barcelona). This decrease leads to a 35% reduction in overall nitrogen oxides emissions, even if some sectors individually experience increases based on their specific projections.

  • Evaluation of the CALIOPE air quality forecasting system for epidemiological research: the example of NO2 in the province of Girona (Spain)

     Aguilera, Inmaculada; Basagaña, Xavier; Pay Pérez, M. Teresa; Agis, David; Bouso, Laura; Foraster, María; Rivera, Marcela; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Künzli, Nino
    Atmospheric environment
    Date of publication: 2013-06-01
    Journal article

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    Background Air quality models are being increasingly used to estimate long-term individual exposures to air pollution in epidemiological studies. Most of them have been evaluated against measurements from a limited number of monitoring stations, which may not properly reflect the exposure characteristics of the study population. Methods We evaluated the performance of the high-resolution CALIOPE air quality forecasting system over a large sample of passive measurements of NO2 conducted at 635 home outdoor locations of the Girona province (Spain) during several 4-week sampling campaigns over one year (July 2007–June 2008). Sampling sites were superposed over the 4 km × 4 km CALIOPE grid, and average NO2 modeled concentrations were derived for all measurements conducted during the same sampling campaign at all the sampling sites located within the same grid cell. In addition, the ratio between measured and modeled concentrations for the whole study period at one fixed monitoring station was used to post-process the modeled values at the home outdoor locations. Results The correlation between measured and modeled concentrations for the entire study area (which includes urban settings, middle-size towns, and rural areas) was 0.78. Modeled concentrations were underestimated in the whole study area. After correcting the modeled concentrations by the measured to modeled ratio at the fixed station (r = 0.25), they were very similar to the measured concentrations (27.7 μg m−3 and 29.3 μg m−3, respectively). However, the performance of the modeling system depends on the type of subarea and is affected by the sub-grid emission sources. Conclusions The evaluation over the heterogenous Girona province showed that CALIOPE is able to reproduce the spatial variability of 4-week NO2 concentrations at the small regional level. CALIOPE output data is a valuable tool to complement study-specific air pollution measurements by incorporating regional spatial variability as well as short- and long-term temporal variability of background pollution in epidemiological research.

  • Sistema de pronóstico de radiación solar a corto plazo a partir de un modelo meteorológico y técnicas de post-proceso para España  Open access

     Rincón Rodríguez, Ángel Alberto
    Defense's date: 2013-06-28
    Department of Engineering Design, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
    Theses

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    El incremento de la utilización de la energía solar como fuente de generación de energía requiere de una adecuada estimación de la radiación solar global y directa incidente en la superficie terrestre. La estimación de la radiación global se realiza mediante simulaciones de modelos numéricos de pronóstico meteorológico que contienen la información sobre la variabilidad de las condiciones temporales, geográficas y atmosféricas. Dicha estimación representa la base del pronóstico de la radiación solar para aplicaciones energéticas. Sin embargo, los esquemas de transferencia radiativa implementados en los modelos meteorológicos, evidencian limitaciones en el cálculo de la radiación y extinción atmosférica con errores sistemáticos en la simulación de la radiación solar. Esta tesis presenta el desarrollo de un sistema de pronóstico de radiación solar basado en simulaciones del modelo meteorológico de meso-escala WRF-ARW, corrección del Bias de la radiación global mediante técnicas de post-proceso y estimaciones de radiación directa a partir de un modelo paramétrico. El modelo WRF-ARW es aplicado con una resolución espacial de 4kmx4km y temporal horaria sobre la península Ibérica. La evaluación anual de las simulaciones del modelo mediante 114 estaciones radiométricas distribuidas en España para el año 2004, muestra un rMBE de 9.8%, un rRMSE de 51% y un coeficiente de correlación r de 0.89 con los errores más significativos en primavera (rMBE=14%, rRMSE=42% y r=0.89) y verano (rMBE=11%, rRMSE=37% y r=0.91). La sobrestimación para condiciones de cielo despejado es superior a 80 W·m-2 y la subestimación con valores inferiores a -80 W·m-2 se presenta en condiciones de cielo completamente nublado para todo el rango del vector posición del Sol entre el horizonte y el cenit.Las técnicas de post-proceso implementadas y evaluadas en el Noreste de España (Cataluña) a través de 90 estaciones radiométricas son: Model Output Statistics (MOS), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Kalman Filter (KF) y método Recursivo (REC). A partir de la revisión bibliográfica, dichas técnicas son utilizadas para minimizar los errores sistemáticos de los pronósticos debido a las diferencias entre los resultados de las simulaciones y las observaciones. Con el propósito de obtener los mejores resultados, se han combinado los post-procesos KF y MOS, los cuales presentan un rMBE anual promedio de 1.2%, un rRMSE de 43% y un coeficiente de correlación de 0.92. Los porcentajes de corrección anual son de 87% y 17% para el Bias y el RMSE, respectivamente.Para la estimación de la radiación solar directa y las horas de Sol, se han evaluado cinco modelos de descomposición paramétrica. El modelo paramétrico de Macagnan que presenta el mejor comportamiento, realiza la estimación a partir del índice de transparencia atmosférica calculado mediante la radiación global corregida por los post-procesos KF y MOS. Las correcciones de la radiación global, la estimación de la radiación directa y la contabilización de las horas de Sol, son interpolados espacialmente a través del método geoestadístico de Kriging. Los resultados son evaluados para analizar las limitaciones de la interpolación en función al comportamiento geográfico y atmosférico de la zona de estudio.Finalmente, el sistema es aplicado y evaluado en 48h de pronóstico del año 2009. Los resultados permiten analizar las correcciones de los post-procesos y las estimaciones de la radiación directa a partir de los elementos establecidos en el sistema de pronóstico con un alcance temporal de 48h. La aplicación de estas metodologías en un sistema de pronóstico permite analizar el impacto de la corrección del Bias, la estimación de la radiación directa y las horas de Sol a partir de simulaciones de pronóstico meteorológico. Por lo tanto, los resultados proporcionan un relevante aporte para futuras aplicaciones de pronósticos de la radiación solar en este sector energético.

    El incremento de la utilizaci on de la energ a solar como fuente de generaci on de energ a requiere de una adecuada estimaci on de la radiaci on solar global y directa incidente en la super cie terrestre. La estimaci on de la radiaci on global se realiza mediante simulaciones de modelos num ericos de pron ostico meteorol ogico que contienen la informaci on sobre la variabilidad de las condiciones temporales, geogr a cas y atmosf ericas. Dicha estimaci on representa la base del pron ostico de la radiaci on solar para aplicaciones energ eticas. Sin embargo, los esquemas de transferencia radiativa implementados en los modelos meteorol ogicos, evidencian limitaciones en el c alculo de la radiaci on y extinci on atmosf erica con errores sistem aticos en la simulaci on de la radiaci on solar. Esta tesis presenta el desarrollo de un sistema de pron ostico de radiaci on solar basado en simulaciones del modelo meteorol ogico de meso-escala WRF-ARW, correcci on del Bias de la radiaci on global mediante t ecnicas de post-proceso y estimaciones de radiaci on directa a partir de un modelo param etrico. El modelo WRF-ARW es aplicado con una resoluci on espacial de 4kmx4km y temporal horaria sobre la pen nsula Ib erica. La evaluaci on anual de las simulaciones del modelo mediante 114 estaciones radiom etricas distribuidas en España para el año 2004, muestra un rMBE de 9.8 %, un rRMSE de 51% y un coe ciente de correlaci on r de 0.89 con los errores m as signi cativos en primavera (rMBE=14 %, rRMSE=42% y r=0.89) y verano (rMBE=11 %, rRMSE=37% y r=0.91). La sobrestimaci on para condiciones de cielo despejado es superior a 80 W m_2 y la subestimaci on con valores inferiores a -80 W m_2 se presenta en condiciones de cielo completamente nublado para todo el rango del vector posici on del Sol entre el horizonte y el cenit. Las t ecnicas de post-proceso implementadas y evaluadas en el Noreste de España (Cataluña) a trav es de 90 estaciones radiom etricas son: Model Output Statistics (MOS), Arti cial Neural Networks (ANN), Kalman Filter (KF) y m etodo Recursivo (REC). A partir de la revisi on bibliogr a ca, dichas t ecnicas son utilizadas para minimizar los errores sistem aticos de los pron osticos debido a las diferencias entre los resultados de las simulaciones y las observaciones. Con el prop osito de obtener los mejores resultados, se han combinado los post-procesos KF y MOS, los cuales presentan un rMBE anual promedio de 1.2%, un rRMSE de 43% y un coe ciente de correlaci on de 0.92. Los porcentajes de correcci on anual son de 87% y 17% para el Bias y el RMSE, respectivamente. Para la estimaci on de la radiaci on solar directa y las horas de Sol, se han evaluado cinco modelos de descomposici on param etrica. El modelo param etrico de Macagnan que presenta el mejor comportamiento, realiza la estimaci on a partir del ndice de transparencia atmosf erica calculado mediante la radiaci on global corregida por los post-procesos KF y MOS. Las correcciones de la radiaci on global, la estimaci on de la radiaci on directa y la contabilizaci on de las horas de Sol, son interpolados espacialmente a trav es del m etodo geoestad stico de Kriging. Los resultados son evaluados para analizar las limitaciones de la interpolaci on en funci on al comportamiento geogr a co y atmosf erico de la zona de estudio. Finalmente, el sistema es aplicado y evaluado en 48h de pron ostico del año 2009. Los resultados permiten analizar las correcciones de los post-procesos y las estimaciones de la radiaci on directa a partir de los elementos establecidos en el sistema de pron ostico con un alcance temporal de 48h. La aplicaci on de estas metodolog as en un sistema de pron ostico permite analizar el impacto de la correcci on del Bias, la estimaci on de la radiaci on directa y las horas de Sol a partir de simulaciones de pron ostico meteorol ogico. Por lo tanto, los resultados proporcionan un relevante aporte para futuras aplicaciones de pron osticos de la radiaci on solar en este sector energ etico.

    The increased contribution of solar energy in the power generation resources requires an accurate estimation of global and direct beam solar radiation incident on the earth's surface. The estimation of global radiation is performed by means of numerical weather prediction models that include all the information to solve the temporal, geographical and atmospheric conditions variability. Being this the basis of the forecast of solar radiation for energy applications. However, the radiative transfer schemes implemented in meteorological models show limitations in the estimation of atmospheric radiation and extinction, with systematic errors in the simulation of solar radiation. This thesis presents the development of a forecasting system based on solar radiation simulations of the WRF-ARW meteorological mesoscale model, Bias corrections of global radiation from post-processing techniques and direct beam radiation estimations using a parametric model. The WRFARW model is applied in the Iberian peninsula with a spatial resolution of 4kmx4km and hourly temporal resolution. The annual evaluation of the model using 114 radiometric stations in Spain for the year 2004, shows rMBE of 9.8%, rRMSE of 51% and correlation coe cient r of 0.89 with the most signi cant errors in spring (rMBE=14 %, rRMSE=42% and r=0.89) and summer (rMBE=11 %, rRMSE=37% and r=0.91). The overestimation for clear sky conditions is over 80 W m_2 and the underestimation below -80 W m_2 are presented in overcast sky conditions for the entire range of Sun's position vector between the horizon and the zenith. The post-processing techniques implemented and evaluated in northeastern Spain (Catalonia) through 90 radiometric stations are: Model Output Statistics (MOS), Arti cial Neural Networks (ANN), Kalman Filter (KF) and Recursive method (REC). These techniques selected from the literature are used to minimize the systematic errors of the forecasts due to di erences between the results of simulations and observations. Combination of the techniques has also been analyzed, being the KF and MOS post-processes those with the best results in annual average with a rMBE of 1.2 %, rRMSE of 43% and correlation coe cient of 0.92. The annual rates of correction are 87% and 17% for Bias and RMSE, respectively To estimate direct beam radiation and sunshine hours, ve parametric models have been evaluated. The Macagnan model showed the best performance. The estimation is performed from the atmospheric transparency index calculated through global radiation corrected by KF and MOS post- processes. The Bias corrections of global radiation, estimations of direct beam radiation and sunshine hours are spatially interpolated through geostatistical method of Kriging. The results are evaluated to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of interpolation according to geographic and atmospheric behavior of the study area. Finally, the system is implemented and evaluated over 48h forecast of year 2009. The results have provided a valuable set of data to analyze the Bias correction of post-processes and the estimation of direct beam radiation from the elements of the forecast system with 48 hours ahead. The implementation of these methodologies on a forecasting system allows the impact analysis of bias correction, estimation of direct beam radiation and sunshine hours from meteorological forecast simulations. Thus, the results provide a relevant contribution for future applications of solar radiation forecast on solar radiation energy sector.

  • Temperature and precipitation trends for the North Western Mediterranean Basin as derived from dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios

     Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria; Barrera-Escoda, Antoni; Guerreiro, Dolores; Cunillera, Jordi; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    International Meeting on Meteorology and Climatology of the Mediterranean
    Presentation's date: 2013-02-28
    Presentation of work at congresses

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    Abstract available online at: http://www.tethys.cat/IMMCM/4Banyuls/ficheros/B4_Gonçalves.pdf

  • Dynamical downscaling of climatic temperature and precipitation trends for the North Western Mediterranean Basin at high resolution

     Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria; Barrera-Escoda, Antoni; Cunillera, Jordi; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    International Conference on Regional Climate
    Presentation's date: 2013-11-05
    Presentation of work at congresses

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    Development and evaluation of the BSC-DREAM8b dust regional model over Northern Africa, the Mediterranean and the Middle East  Open access

     Basart Alpuente, Sara; Pérez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Nickovic, Slodoban; Cuevas, Emilio; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Tellus. Series B, chemical and physical meteorology
    Date of publication: 2012-06-12
    Journal article

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    The BSC-DREAM8b model and its predecessor are analysed in terms of aerosol optical depth (AOD) for 2004 over Northern Africa, the Mediterranean and the Middle East. We discuss the model performance and we test and analyse its behaviour with new components. The results are evaluated using hourly data from 44 AERONET stations and seasonally averaged satellite observations. The operational versions strongly underestimate the winter AOD over the Sahel and overestimate the AOD over the Middle East and the Mediterranean achieving a low average annual correlation (~0.35). The use of a more detailed size distribution and a corrected wash-out ratio, together with a new dry deposition scheme, improves the transport over the Mediterranean, although underestimations remain over the Sahel and overestimations over the Middle East. The inclusion of a ‘preferential source’ mask improves the localisation of the main North African sources and consequently the dust transport towards Europe and the Atlantic. The use of a more physically based dust emission scheme and a new soil texture database leads to significant improvements in the representation of emissions and the transport over the Sahel, achieving an average annual correlation of 0.53. In this case, the use of a preferential source mask does not introduce significant improvements

  • Trends in ozone concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula by quantile regression and clustering

     Monteiro, Alexandra; Carvalho, A.; Ribeiro, I; Scotto, M.; Barbosa, S.; Alonso, A.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Pay Pérez, M. Teresa; Miranda, A.I.; Borrego, Carlos
    Atmospheric environment
    Date of publication: 2012-09-01
    Journal article

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    Aerosols in the CALIOPE air quality modelling system: evaluation and analysis of PM levels, optical depths and chemical composition over Europe  Open access

     Basart Alpuente, Sara; Pay Pérez, M. Teresa; Pérez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Jiménez Guerrero, Pedro; Schulz, M.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Atmospheric chemistry and physics
    Date of publication: 2012-04-10
    Journal article

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    The CALIOPE air quality modelling system is developed and applied to Europe with high spatial resolution (12 km × 12 km). The modelled daily-to-seasonal aerosol variability over Europe in 2004 is evaluated and analysed. Aerosols are estimated from two models, CMAQv4.5 (AERO4) and BSC-DREAM8b. CMAQv4.5 calculates biogenic, anthropogenic and sea salt aerosol and BSC-DREAM8b provides the natural mineral dust contribution from North African deserts. For the evaluation, we use daily PM10, PM2.5 and aerosol components data from 55 stations of the EMEP/CREATE network and total, coarse and fine aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from 35 stations of the AERONET sun photometer network. Annual correlations between modelled and observed values for PM10 and PM2.5 are 0.55 and 0.47, respectively. Correlations for total, coarse and fine AOD are 0.51, 0.63, and 0.53, respectively. The higher correlations of the PM10 and the coarse mode AOD are largely due to the accurate representation of the African dust influence in the forecasting system. Overall PM and AOD levels are underestimated. The evaluation of the aerosol components highlights underestimations in the fine fraction of carbonaceous matter (EC and OC) and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA; i.e. nitrate, sulphate and ammonium). The scores of the bulk parameters are significantly improved after applying a simple model bias correction based on the observed aerosol composition. The simulated PM10 and AOD present maximum values over the industrialized and populated Po Valley and Benelux regions. SIA are dominant in the fine fraction representing up to 80% of the aerosol budget in latitudes north of 40° N. In southern Europe, high PM10 and AOD are linked to the desert dust transport from the Sahara which contributes up to 40% of the aerosol budget. Maximum seasonal ground-level concentrations (PM10 > 30 μg m−3) are found between spring and early autumn. We estimate that desert dust causes daily exceedances of the PM10 European air quality limit value (50 μg m−3) in large areas south of 45° N with more than 75 exceedances per year in the southernmost regions

  • Assessing sensitivity regimes of secondary inorganic aerosol formation in Europe with the CALIOPE-EU modeling system

     Pay Pérez, M. Teresa; Jiménez Guerrero, Pedro; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Atmospheric environment
    Date of publication: 2012-03-03
    Journal article

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    Potential significance of photoexcited NO 2 on global air quality with the NMMB/BSC chemical transport model  Open access

     Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Dabdub, Donald; Blaszczak-Boxe, C.; Pérez, C.; Janjic, Z.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Spada, M.; Badia, Alba; Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria
    Journal of geophysical research
    Date of publication: 2012
    Journal article

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  • Aerosol properties of the Eyjafjallajökull ash derived from sun photometer and satellite observations over the Iberian Peninsula

     Toledano, C.; Bennouna, Y; Cachorro, V.; de Galisteo, O.J.P.; Stohl, A.; Stebel, K.; Kristiansen, N.I.; Olmo, F. J.; Lyamani, H.; Obregón, M.A.; Estelles, Victor; Wagner, F.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; González Castanedo, Y.; Clarisse, L.; de Frutos, A.M.
    Atmospheric environment
    Date of publication: 2012-03-01
    Journal article

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    The Eyjafjallajökull ash that crossed over Spain and Portugal on 6e12 May 2010 has been monitored by a set of operational sun photometer sites within AERONET-RIMA and satellite sensors. The sun photometer observations (aerosol optical depth, coarse mode concentrations) and ash products from IASI and SEVIRI satellite sensors, together with FLEXPART simulations of particle transport, allow identifying the volcanic aerosols. The aerosol columnar properties derived from inversions were investigated, indicating specific properties, especially regarding the absorption. The single scattering albedo was high (0.95 at 440 nm) and nearly wavelength independent, although with slight decrease with wavelength. Other parameters, like the fine mode fraction of the volume size distributions (0.20e0.80) or the portion of spherical particles (15e90%), were very variable among the sites and indicated that the various ash clouds were inhomogeneous with respect to particle size and shape.

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    Atmospheric dust modeling from meso to global scales with the online NMMB/BSC-Dust model - Part 2: Experimental campaigns in Northern Africa  Open access

     Haustein, Karsten; Pérez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Miller, R.L.; Janjic, Z.; Black, T.; Nickovic, Slodoban; Todd, M.C.; Tesche, M.; Washington, R.; Müller, D.; Weinzierl, B.; Esselborn, M.; Schladitz, A.
    Atmospheric chemistry and physics
    Date of publication: 2012-03-23
    Journal article

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    The new online NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. The companion paper Pérez et al., 2011 develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6–0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodélé Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical distribution. The mixing height is underestimated which may be attributed to poor soil initial conditions. For the BoDEx period, particular attention is paid to understand the dust model behavior in relation with the low level jet (LLJ) in the Bodélé. The diurnal temperature cycle depends strongly on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The daily maximum surface wind speeds are underestimated up to 50% in some days even when using a more accurate soil moisture initialization. The dust plume over the Bodélé is well reproduced by the model and the reductions in the threshold friction velocity substantially reduce the negative AOD bias in the model due to wind speed underestimation. The LLJ is also well reproduced, which is remarkable given the rather poor model initialization with NCEP-FNL data.

  • Assessment of Kalman filter bias-adjustment technique to improve the simulation of ground-level ozone over Spain

     Sicardi, Valentina; Ortiz, Joana; Rincón, Ángel; Jorba i Casellas, Oriol; Pay Pérez, M. Teresa; Gassó Domingo, Santiago; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Science of the total environment
    Date of publication: 2012-02-01
    Journal article

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  • Spatio-temporal variability of concentrations and speciation of particulate matter across Spain in the CALIOPE modeling system

     Pay Pérez, M. Teresa; Jiménez Guerrero, Pedro; Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Querol, Xavier; Pandolfi, M.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Atmospheric environment
    Date of publication: 2012-01
    Journal article

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  • Ground-, satellite- and simulation-based analysis of a strong dust event over Abastumani, Georgia, during May 2009

     Kokkalis, P.; Mamouri, R.E.; Todua, M.; Didebulidze, G.G.; Amiridis, V.; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Papayannis, Alexander; Pérez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    International journal of remote sensing
    Date of publication: 2012-02-06
    Journal article

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    Impact of HONO sources on the performance of mesoscale air quality models  Open access

     Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria; Dabdubd, D.; Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Chang, W.L.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Atmospheric environment
    Date of publication: 2012
    Journal article

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    Nitrous acid (HONO) photolysis constitutes a primary source of OH in the early morning, which leads to changes in model gas-phase and particulate matter concentrations. However, state-of-the-art models of chemical mechanisms share a common representation of gas-phase chemistry leading to HONO that fails in reproducing the observed profiles. Hence, there is a growing interest in improving the definition of additional HONO sources within air quality models, i.e. direct emissions or heterogeneous reactions. In order to test their feasibility under atmospheric conditions, the WRF-ARW/HERMES/CMAQ modeling system is applied with high horizontal resolution (4 4 km2) to Spain for November 24e27, 2008. HONO modeled sources include: (1) direct emissions from on-road transport; NO2 hydrolysis on aerosol and ground surfaces, the latter with (2) kinetics depending exclusively on available surfaces for reaction and (3) refined kinetics considering also relative humidity dependence; and (4) photoenhanced NO2 reduction on ground surfaces. The DOMINO measurement campaign performed in El Arenosillo (Southern Spain) provides valuable HONO observations. Modeled HONO results are consistently below observations, even when the most effective scenario is assessed, corresponding to contributions of direct emissions and NO2 hydrolysis with the simplest kinetics parameterization. With the additional sources of HONO, PM2.5 predictions can be up to 14% larger in urban areas. Quantified impacts on secondary pollutants have to be taken as a low threshold, due to the proven underestimation of HONO levels. It is fundamental to improve HONO sources definition within air quality models, both for the scientific community and decision makers.

  • Participación española en ChArMEx (The Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment) ChArMEx-SP2

     Comeron Tejero, Adolfo; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Rocadenbosch Burillo, Francisco; Sicard, Michaël
    Participation in a competitive project

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  • Initial Training on Atmospheric Remote Sensing

     Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Gassó Domingo, Santiago; Tiana Alsina, Jordi; Saeed, Umar; Banks, Robert Franklin; Rocadenbosch Burillo, Francisco
    Participation in a competitive project

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  • Implementation of a sea-salt module within the NMMB/BSC Chemical Transport Model: global simulations and comparisons with observations

     Spada, M.; Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Pérez Garcia-Pando, Carlos; Janjic, Z.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    European Geosciences Union General Assembly
    Presentation's date: 2012-04-27
    Presentation of work at congresses

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  • Dust modelling and forecasting in the BSC : activities and developments

     Basart Alpuente, Sara; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Terradellas, E.; Benincasa, F.
    International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction Workshop
    Presentation's date: 2012-05-17
    Presentation of work at congresses

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    Monitoring and forecasting dust storms : a GMES contribution to health hazard warning and cooperation with Africa  Open access

     Cuevas, Emilio; Boucher, O.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Schulz, M.; Terradellas, E.; Morcrette, J.J.
    Date of publication: 2012-10-01
    Book chapter

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  • Development of an atmospheric modeling system for regional and global mineral dust prediction: Application to Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe

     Haustein, Karsten
    Defense's date: 2012-01-30
    Department of Engineering Design, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
    Theses

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  • Evaluation of dust modelling using a synergetic algorithm of lidar and sunphotometer data

     Tsekeri, A.; Amiridis, V.; Kokkalis, P.; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Chaikovsky, Anatoli; Papayannis, Alexander; Dubovik, O.; Mamouri, R.E.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    International Laser Radar Conference
    Presentation's date: 2012-06-26
    Presentation of work at congresses

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  • Modelling of long-range transport of mineral dust in Cape Verde

     Tchepel, Oxana; Ferreira, Joaquim; Fernandes, A.P.; Gama, C.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Borrego, Carlos; Cardoso, J. F.; Almeida, S.M.; Pio, C
    European Aerosol Conference
    Presentation's date: 2012-09-03
    Presentation of work at congresses

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  • High resolution climate scenarios by dynamic downscaling modelling techniques over the Northwestern Mediterranean Basin

     Gonçalves Ageitos, Maria; Barrera-Escoda, A.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Cunillera, Jordi
    European Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
    Presentation's date: 2012-09-10
    Presentation of work at congresses

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  • Complex vertical aerosol layering of natural and anthropogenic particles over the Southeastern Mediterranean: observations with Earlinet lidar and Aeronet photometer at Lemesos, Cyprus and comparison with transport modeling results

     Mamouri, R.E.; Ansmann, Albert; Nisantzi, A.; Schwarz, A.; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Hadjimitsis, D.G.; Kokkalis, P.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    International Global Atmospheric Chemistry
    Presentation's date: 2012-09-18
    Presentation of work at congresses

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  • Evaluation of the last features of CMAQ model v5.0 within the framework of the CALIOPE air quality forecasting system over Europe

     Pay Pérez, M. Teresa; Gassó Domingo, Santiago; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop
    Presentation's date: 2012-10-18
    Presentation of work at congresses

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    Evaluation of the CMAQ5.0 in the framework of the CALIOPE air quality forecasting system over Europe  Open access

     Pay Pérez, M. Teresa; Gassó Domingo, Santiago; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.
    Annual Community Modeling and Analysis System Conference
    Presentation's date: 2012-10-16
    Presentation of work at congresses

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    CALIOPE is a high-resolution air quality system which provides forecast for 24 and 48h since October 2006 for Europe (12 km x 12 km, 1h) and Spain (4 km x 4 km, 1h). The meteorological model is the WRF-ARW model (version 3.2.1) initialized by the FNL/NCEP data. The emissions are estimated by means a top-down approach implemented in the High-Elective Resolution Modeling Emission System (HERMES version 2.0) based on the EMEP inventory for the year 2008. The Chemical Transport Model (CTM) is the CMAQ (version 4.5) using the CB-IV chemical mechanism and AERO4 mode for aerosols. Several evaluation studies and near-real time evaluation (NRT) against air quality measurements on an hourly basis support the confidence on the system. The present contribution evaluates the CALIOPE system over Europe using CMAQ CTM version 5.0 (CB05 and AERO5) which is working in forecast mode since 9 April 2012. The comparison between both CMAQ versions is done in terms of gaseous and aerosol concentrations (O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5) at the lowest level. Forecast concentrations are compared against observations on an hourly basis from the European air quality database (Airbase) which classifies stations as background rural/suburban. Results indicate that CMAQv5.0 improves O3 forecast daily cycle, especially at nighttime over suburban stations, where O3 biases are reduced between 20 and 40 µgm-3. The CMAQv5.0 improves the forecast of NO2 peaks at suburban stations reducing biases ~10-20 µgm-3. PM10 forecast also improves with the new CMAQ version. Episodes of secondary aerosol formation are now reproduced (i.e. 7-14 may 2012), where bias are reduce in ~10-20 µgm-3. Furthermore, PM10 hourly peaks in suburban stations are better reproduced reducing hourly biases ~5-10 µgm-3. The contribution also evaluates the effect of using the Kalman filter post-process to reduce systematic bias in both CMAQ versions. Results show that the bias-adjustment technique is more effective over CMAQv5.0.

  • Intercomparison and evaluation of dust prediction models

     Terradellas, E.; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Schulz, M.; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Pejanovic, G.; Menut, L.; Benedetti, Andrea; Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Mulcahy, J.; Benincasa, F.
    ACCENT/GLOREAM Workshop
    Presentation's date: 2012-10-18
    Presentation of work at congresses

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    Caliope: sistema de pronóstico operacional de calidad del aire para Europa y España  Open access

     Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Jorba Casellas, Oriol; Gassó Domingo, Santiago; Pay Pérez, M. Teresa; Arevalo Roa, Gustavo
    Jornadas Científicas de la Asociación Meteorológica Española
    Presentation of work at congresses

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    En las últimas décadas Europa ha presentado un claro progreso en la reducción de las emisiones antropogénicas. Sin embargo, la contaminación atmosférica continúa siendo un problema para la salud, especialmente en ambientes urbanos. El material particulado (PM), el dióxido de nitrógeno (NO2) y el ozono troposférico (O3) son los principales contaminantes con problemas en Europa y España. La directiva europea 2008/50/EC establece la posibilidad de usar técnicas de modelización que permitan incrementen el conocimiento sobre el transporte y la dinámica de contaminantes en la atmósfera para asegurar el cumplimiento de la legislación e informar a la población acerca de sus niveles. En este sentido, el sistema de pronóstico de la calidad del aire CALIOPE lleva trabajando en modo operacional ofreciendo pronósticos de la dinámica de la contaminación atmosférica en Europa y España desde octubre de 2006. CALIOPE incorpora el estado actual de conocimiento sobre la modelización de la física y química de la atmosfera, así como un modelo de emisiones específicamente desarrollado para España (HERMES). En este trabajo se describen las principales características actuales del sistema de pronóstico de calidad del aire CALIOPE en cuanto a su configuración, utilidad y funcionamiento como herramienta de pronóstico

  • Development of a spatial and temporal disaggregation methodology applied to the EMEP emission inventory

     Guevara Vilardell, Marc; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Arevalo Roa, Gustavo; Gassó Domingo, Santiago; Martínez Palau, Francesc; Soret Miravet, Albert
    Conference of the Global Emissions InitiAtive
    Presentation's date: 2012-06-12
    Presentation of work at congresses

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  • Updating and improvement of the high-resolution (1km x 1km, 1h) emission Model for Spain: HERMES v.2.0

     Guevara Vilardell, Marc; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Arevalo Roa, Gustavo; Gassó Domingo, Santiago; Martínez Palau, Francesc; Soret Miravet, Albert; Ferrer Codony, Gina
    Conference of the Global Emissions InitiAtive
    Presentation's date: 2012-06-12
    Presentation of work at congresses

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  • Comparison of averaged extinction profiles from CALIPSO and BSC-DREAM8b dust model over Greece

     Marinou, E.; Amiridis, V.; Tsekeri, A.; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Kazadzis, S.; Papayannis, Alexander
    International Laser Radar Conference
    Presentation's date: 2012-06-26
    Presentation of work at congresses

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  • A Comparative analysis of atmospheric emission inventories available for Europe

     Ferreira, Joana; Guevara Vilardell, Marc; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Tchepel, Oxana; Schaap, M.; Miranda, A.I.; Borrego, Carlos
    Conference of the Global Emissions InitiAtive
    Presentation's date: 2012-06-12
    Presentation of work at congresses

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  • An Empirical relationship to estimate mineral dust concentration from visibility observations

     Camino, Carlos; Alonso-Pérez, S; Terradellas, E.; Rodriguez, S.; Gómez-Peláez, A.J.; Romero-Campos, P.M.; Hernández, Y.; Basart Alpuente, Sara; Baldasano Recio, Jose M.; Cuevas, Emilio
    European Aerosol Conference
    Presentation's date: 2012-09-03
    Presentation of work at congresses

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