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Are Election Polls Right? Analysis of the Accuracy of Election Polls Predictions Published in the Press

Autor
Caballe, A.; Grima, P.; Marco-Almagro, L.
Tipus d'activitat
Article en revista
Revista
Revista española de investigaciones sociológicas
Data de publicació
2013-09
Número
143
Pàgina inicial
25
Pàgina final
46
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5477/cis/reis.143.25 Obrir en finestra nova
URL
http://www.reis.cis.es/REIS/jsp/REIS.jsp?opcion=articulo&ktitulo=2369&autor=ADRI%C0+CABALL%C9%2C+PERE+GRIMA%2C+LLU%CDS+MARCO-ALMAGRO Obrir en finestra nova
Resum
This paper analyses the predictions of the election results for the Spanish Parliament published in the main Spanish newspapers. To gauge their degree of accuracy, the distance between the predictions and the actual results was defined and later assessed by comparing it with that of the so-called 'perfect poll'. This 'perfect poll' was generated by a simulation using the proportions of votes actually obtained by each party. Other issues related to the published polls are also analysed, such as t...
Paraules clau
Distribution of Parliamentary Seats, Elections, Electoral Behaviour, Fieldwork, Mass Media, Research Design, Surveys
Grup de recerca
ADBD - Anàlisi de Dades Complexes per a les Decisions Empresarials

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