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Economic uncertainty: a geometric indicator of discrepancy among experts’ expectations

Author
Claveria, O.; Monte, E.; Torra Porras, Salvador
Type of activity
Journal article
Journal
Social indicators research
Date of publication
2018-08-18
First page
1
Last page
20
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-1984-2 Open in new window
Project funding
Tecnologías de aprendizaje profundo aplicadas al procesado de voz y audio
Repository
http://hdl.handle.net/2117/121115 Open in new window
URL
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-018-1984-2 Open in new window
Abstract
In this study we present a geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty. We design a positional indicator of disagreement among survey-based agents’ expectations about the state of the economy. Previous dispersion-based uncertainty indicators derived from business and consumer surveys exclusively make use of the two extreme pieces of information: the percentage of respondents expecting a variable to rise and to fall. With the aim of also incorporating the information coming from the share ...
Citation
Claveria, O., Monte, E., Torra Porras, S. Economic uncertainty: a geometric indicator of discrepancy among experts’ expectations. "Social indicators research", 1 Gener 2018, p. 1-20.
Keywords
Barycentric coordinate system, Disagreement, Economic tendency surveys, Expectations, Geometry, Spatial vectors
Group of research
IDEAI-UPC - Intelligent Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Research Center
TALP - Centre for Language and Speech Technologies and Applications
VEU - Speech Processing Group

Participants

  • Claveria González, Oscar  (author)
  • Monte Moreno, Enrique  (author)
  • Torra Porras, Salvador  (author)